Why I love currency markets, the loonie edition

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From Bloomberg:

The Canadian dollar fell for a fourth day as investors sold commodity-linked currencies on speculation U.S. subprime mortgage losses will slow the world’s largest economy.

The Canadian currency was the second-worst performer among the 16 most actively traded currencies, trailing only Japan’s yen, while falling 0.3 percent to 93.70 U.S. cents. One U.S. dollar buys C$1.0662. …

Commodities account for about half of Canada’s exports. Canada ships more than 80 percent of its exports to the U.S., including steel and lumber.

Canada’s dollar also came under pressure after a German bank’s losses from subprime mortgages renewed concern that rising defaults will reduce lending and curb corporate takeovers. Canada’s dollar has benefited from foreign takeovers of Canadian commodity assets.

Okay, so let’s get this straight: The Canadian dollar fell against the U.S. dollar because of concerns about weakness in the U.S. economy. And maybe also because a German bank got into trouble buying U.S. mortgages? That doesn’t really seem fair, does it? I guess you could make the argument that, as a commodity-driven economy, Canada is subject to greater cyclical swings than the U.S.–if the U.S. catches cold, Canada catches pneumonia. But isn’t it also possible that the currency traders that Bloomberg talks to are just making things up to explain something for which there is no real explanation?

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