The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index jumped far faster than anybody expected in May. Markets rejoiced, there was dancing in the streets, etc. etc.
But here’s a little reality check from Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics:
if the new level is maintained the Conference Board index is consistent with real spending growth of less than 1%.
In other words, if we’re heading for a recovery, we still can’t count on consumer spending to drive it.