If one unintended side effect of Netflix’s plan changes was an increase in cancellations, a side effect of the splitting up of the businesses could be that customers sticking with their subscriptions will try to get more out of them—because it’s top of mind after subscribers have just been reminded of their membership plan and how much it costs. “With all the changes in the news, people are forced to focus on their subscriptions, and there will be a tendency to use them more,” says Adams.
In the past, a customer might let a Netflix DVD sit unwatched and ignored for weeks. Now, though, with the customer freshly reminded of his subscription, he’ll be more likely to watch the DVD and ship it back to Netflix sooner, then repeat the whole scenario again when the next DVD arrives in the mail. If this same customer no longer streams Netflix content—because he didn’t want to pay the extra money when the pricing structure changed—that means there are fewer other things he could be watching other than the Netflix DVD awaiting his attention. Likewise, a streaming-only customer will also be more inclined lately to stream as much as his eyeballs can handle to get the most out of the subscription.
When Hastings made his apology/announcement Sunday, he made it clear that there wouldn’t be price changes accompanying the separation of the businesses:
There are no pricing changes (we’re done with that!).
But that doesn’t mean prices will stay the same forever. Right now, the streaming-only and one DVD-by-mail services cost $8 per month apiece. After all the grief and bad press the company has received (and continues to receive) because of price hikes, the rates will probably stay put for quite some time.
As the separate brands and businesses become more fully established, however, they’ll be freer to price their products however they choose. Adams foresees streaming customers as the first to be subject to a price increase: “They’re more likely to face a price hike in the long run, because the price for quality content will rise.”
Mark Suster, writing for Fortune, meanwhile, predicts DVD-by-mail rates will rise sooner, if only because mailing costs will do the same:
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see price increases in Qwikster in the future. No time soon. But eventually. It seems logical.
Both Adams and Suster warn that consumers shouldn’t get too attached to Netflix’s current all-you-can-eat streaming service. Suster writes:
Who says that “all you can eat” pricing is the right one for a streaming service? Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t. In the DVD world they could always limit you because you could only have a certain number of videos outstanding and any time. With streaming, this is harder to enforce.
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Both Adams and Suster also envision tweaks and additions to the streaming service that may include on-demand type pay-per-view content, digital sales, and different pricing tiers (new vs. older releases), perhaps in addition or in lieu of a regular monthly fee. “The infrastructure is all there,” says Adams. “Ultimately, I’d be more surprised if Netflix doesn’t go in this direction.”
Brad Tuttle is a reporter at TIME. Find him on Twitter at @bradrtuttle. You can also continue the discussion on TIME’s Facebook page and on Twitter at @TIME.