The Little Recovery That Could…Well, Maybe

Remember the recovery? It began officially way back in the middle of 2009, 18 months after the financial system—and then everything else in the American economy—fell apart. Given that nobody has seen much of a raise since …

Why Is Unemployment Falling So Fast When Growth Is So Slow?

The U.S. unemployment rate has fallen from 9% to about 8% in the last year, to the delight of everyone from job seekers to the Obama re-election team. But traditional economic theory tells us that shouldn’t have happened unless the economy was growing by double its current 2.5% rate.

How High Will Global Oil Prices Rise?

If you’re watching global oil markets and getting a sickening feeling in your stomach, you’re in good company. Oil prices have spiked precipitously in recent weeks, with the U.S. benchmark price at over $107 and Brent rising …

Why A Stronger Economy Probably Won’t Translate Into A Raise — Yet

Last Friday’s jobs numbers came in strong, particularly in important areas like manufacturing, on which President Obama is staking much of the economic component of his re-election campaign. If voters start to feel more prosperous than they have over the last few years, it will certainly help him at the polls in November. But in order …

Jobs Numbers and the Economics of Emotion

Consumer confidence is up, and the new jobs numbers — the U.S. added 227,000 jobs in February, the third straight month of 200,000-plus gains — show that the U.S. economy continues to improve. Does that mean we are going to finally start seeing a shift out of the era of fearful, volatile markets that we’ve been in for over three …

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