Will High Marijuana Taxes Encourage Black Markets?

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Elaine Thompson / AP

Marijuana is displayed during the grand opening of the Seattle location of the Northwest Cannabis Market, for sales of medical marijuana products on Feb. 13, 2013.

Correction appended on February 23rd at 11:40 a.m.

Opponents of marijuana prohibition had one heck of a year in 2012, as voters in both Washington and Colorado passed ballot initiatives legalizing recreational use of the drug. One of the central arguments these folks used in their anti-prohibition campaign was to point out what an excellent revenue source a well-regulated and heavily taxed marijuana industry could be for states. And in a time when the federal and state governments are so hard up for revenue, the tax receipts legal marijuana could bring in, plus reduced strain on law enforcement, could be significant. A 2010 Cato Institute study of the issue estimated that if marijuana prohibition were ended nationwide, it would save state, local, and federal governments $8.7 billion annually in reduced law enforcement costs, and bring in another $8.7 billion in tax revenues.

But as it turns out, actually figuring out an appropriate marijuana tax policy is more complicated than it sounds. The cannabis industry is an easy target for legislatures to saddle with heavy taxes. In Washington State for instance, there is a 25% tax at three different stages of cannabis production: from the grower to the processor, from the processor to the retailer, and the retailer to the customer. These taxes are in addition to any other state or local sales taxes that might apply.

(MORE: From Mexico to Moscow, the World Turns On to U.S. Marijuana Legalization)

But that’s not all. The ultimate goal for opponents of marijuana prohibition is federal legalization. But any serious reform of federal marijuana policy will most certainly include a hefty federal excise tax as well in order to 1) help fund regulatory mechanisms; and 2) garner support from lawmakers who would not otherwise be disposed to reform. Oregon Representative Earl Blumenauer, for instance, has introduced marijuana reform legislation that would enact a 50% excise tax on production.

Proponents of legalization understand that healthy sales taxes are a great tool for furthering their cause. At a certain point, however, high taxes will encourage an illicit market. Where is the line? It’s difficult to know for sure, but if a 50% tax were enacted on the federal level, the marijuana industry in a state like Washington would face at least $1.92 in tax for every $1 of product sold produced. Whether this level of taxation is enough to encourage a black market is difficult to say.

The black market generally imposes its own costs — purveyors can charge a premium because of the risks they incur. But the regulatory burden for legal marijuana cultivation is high as well. In Colorado, for instance, where medical marijuana has been legal for more than a decade, growers are required to keep their operations under 24-7 video surveillance, procure criminal background checks for workers, and keep regulators alerted each and every time they move product. These are just a few of the regulations that can help to drive up the price of legal cannabis cultivation and encourage illicit markets to develop.

Another vexing tax problem facing Washington state lawmakers particularly is whether or not medical marijuana should be taxed at the same rates as pot consumed recreationally. As it stands, medical marijuana is subject to sales tax, but not yet subject to the three levels of 25% sales tax enacted on recreational sales. But lawmakers are concerned that having the same product be taxed at different levels will create a black market whereby medical marijuana is sold illicitly to recreational consumers. One possible way to avoid this problem would be to tax all marijuana products the same, and then allow patients with a prescription to file for a refund.

(MORE: U.S. Marijuana Laws Ricochet Through Latin America)

For opponents of prohibition, taxes are the one of the best tools to convince citizens and governments of the benefits of a well-regulated marijuana industry. But the marijuana industry in America — in all its various stages of legality — is large and well-developed. Some even estimate it to be the single largest cash crop in the country. Given that fact, one can’t expect the black market to dissapear overnight if taxes and regulations make legal marijuana prohibitively expensive. And as legislators continue the process of setting up a tax and regulatory structure for this budding industry, it’s a reality they had better take into account.

This original version of this article incorrectly stated that medical marijuana is not subject to sales tax in Washington State. Medical marijuana is subject to sales tax, but not yet subject to new taxes imposed after recreational marijuana was legalized. 

96 comments
ChristopherMorton
ChristopherMorton

No.   What will keep the black market in business are the arbitrary restrictions, regulation and bureaucracy.   I wouldn't mind paying a tax on Cannabis, if produced in mass the tax could be offset by lowered general prices, and the product offered at the current market rate with tax included in the total.    What will keep me needing a medical card, is the fact that I cannot grow plants, and the fact that I am arbitrarily limited to buying an ounce.   It's just insane that I can buy 20 lbs of coffee if I want, but I am limited to an ounce of Cannabis.  I can fill up an entire shopping cart with liquor bottles, and the only question I might face would be - where is the party?   

Want to kill the black market?   Remove the stupid limitations.   Treat Cannabis less like a controlled substance, and more like alcohol.  Idiotic restrictions protect no one and stifle any potential for a successful business.    Imagine a world where I could buy an ounce of coffee, but if I had more than that, I could be fined, ticketed, or arrested.     Anyone who wanted to stock up and SAVE MONEY, would have to be driven to the black market.    My dad buys coffee in bulk, he would be screwed and forced to pay far more over time.   What about those who want to buy more cannabis at a time, because it SAVES MONEY?    I think people imagine that all cannabis lovers should be irresponsible low income paycheck to paycheck stoners who cannot actually afford to make decisions that are financially more responsible.   The drug propaganda has everyone believing that owning a pound means you have intent to deal.   But you would only have incentive to deal if people had no where else to go buy a pound.    Idiots.

WilliamRoberson
WilliamRoberson like.author.displayName 1 Like

I used to grow my own indoors but had to stop when my sister got picked for a DUI and started some trouble.  I would really like to get back at it. At $11.06 an ounce I was saving nearly $4000.00 a year and keeping that money out of the hand of street gangs.  I basically saw it as keeping guns off the street.  For every 50 bucks spent 1 gun hits the street.  Needless to say, I haven't been smoking very much.  Last time was New Years when I was in Yellowstone National Park.

One thing is certain.  The government should be tackling legal marijuana rather than gay marriage.

NedHoey
NedHoey like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

First of all, “marijuana” should not be taxed at all. It’s just a plant consisting mostly of common plant substances. Any tax should be on the THC CONTENT of the product. It is how alcohol is taxed, on the products alcohol content. That’s certainly how they’re going to have to tax the edible products. A simple tax by gross weight of dried flower is totally ridiculous. I would convert all my flower to concentrates to increase the THC to bulk ratio. There should be an excise tax on content in the production chain, from producer to distributor/retailer. NO mandated three tier system, (a lesson learned from alcohol) and sales tax for general use (not medical).

Second, cannabis is an extremely prolific plant. Legal cultivation is going to produce vast quantities. We are so accustomed to decades of black market pricing, most people including most in the trade are unable to conceive of the $10-20 oz. yet that’s what commercial grade cannabis could and should cost. Remember, indoor growing was always more about hiding production, so the high cost of doing it will soon no longer be worthwhile. seen any indoor vineyards lately? That a good thing too because the carbon footprint of indoor growing is horrendous. 

There is no longer an alcohol black market because the scale of production required to produce profitable quantities is large. Alcohol beverages are cheap, to make money you need large production. Large production is easier for the government to oversee and tax. A tax which by the way, MUST not exceed in TOTAL, about 20% of the retail price. Also, if the legal marketplace is established such that the oz price for dried flower remains above $50-70 an oz, at least here in CA, black market activity WILL continue. Street prices for commercial grades are at that price NOW. If it’s worth it now, it will still be worth doing it when legal.

Paulpot
Paulpot like.author.displayName 1 Like

Well the 1937 Marijuana Tax Act was a fairly high tax and it resulted in some black market trading.

ganjadite
ganjadite like.author.displayName 1 Like

I think this is a valid concern, but the silver lining is you can grow your own with no tax at all. I think we need smart minded people in the groups making the laws and write them to make sense and not just try to get what money you can from the consumer. If you are looking for some dank recipes check us out at ganjalicious.com

Peace and Love

mrbomb13
mrbomb13

Second, regarding the possibility of a potenially high tax on marijuana creating a "black market," all one has to do review Economics 101.

Since a high tax will raise the price of legal marijuana, it will incentivize buyers to compare price points between legal and illegal sources.  If the price of illegal marijuana (on the black market) is higher, than demand for legal sources will remain stable (so long as supply is sufficient).  The black market would prove to be a non-lucrative venture.

However, if the price of taxed legal marijuana is higher than the black market offerings, demand for legal marijuana will fall, and supply will rise.  To incentivize buyers to purchase legal marijuana under such circumstances, prices will have to fall to boost demand.  In that case, the substitute to legal marijuana will be a more desirable g/s, and the black market will prove to be lucrative (and flourish for the near-term).

However, if the price of the taxed legal marijuana equals the black market offerings, than demand for either will be determined by differences at the micro-level (i.e. comparative potency of the substance, ease of purchase, available quantities, etc.).

BobWilliamKnight
BobWilliamKnight like.author.displayName 1 Like

@mrbomb13 they couldnt both be the same price you gotta go lower than street prices to get customers.you failed economics

davidswift87
davidswift87 like.author.displayName 1 Like

@SanhoTree yep, but as with cigarettes, legal highs and music downloads, most ppl will go for the legal option, even if it means paying more

SanhoTree
SanhoTree like.author.displayName 1 Like

@davidswift87 Just as one would pay more for a car stereo from a proper store vs one that "fell off a truck." Not worth the gamble.

mrbomb13
mrbomb13

Not so fast, TIME Magazine!  Presumably, the "Marijuana Prohibition" you mention is meant to echo the 1920s "Prohibition on Alcohol." 

However, the two are in no way the same.  1920s Prohibition banned the sale and distribution of alcohol - which was previously legal in the vast majority of the country.  It took a constitutional amendment to repeal Prohibition.

The alleged "Marijuana Prohibition" is a blatant misnomer, because marijuana has been illegal across the U.S..  In fact, cracking down on marijuana has been the focus of the U.S. Government's 'War on Drugs.'  It has only been very recent that 2/50 of the States have legalized the substance.

Therefore, it's totally inaccurate to write about "Opponents of Marijuana Prohibition," because such prohibition has never existed. 

Seriously, TIME, you need to expand your editorial staff, because this article should have never been published in its current form.

george03636486
george03636486

cannabis has been grown in the US legaly for very many years, george washington even grew and endorsed it

it was not till 1930 that they started banning it and that was because of a mix of racial steriotypes(that all mexacins smoke it), propoganda from the wood industry, and confusion with jimson weed( which is not cannabis)

billgriggs4
billgriggs4 like.author.displayName 1 Like

Alcohol and marijuna prohibition aren't so different.  In both cases these are products that are too popular to effectively ban. Marijuana wasn't so popular when it was first banned, but use took off in the late Sixties and according to federal data we hit the point a few years ago that over half of all American adults under the age of 65 had smoked pot. Both prohibitions did more harm than good.  Neither stopped much.  Alcohol prohibition cut drinking at first but by the end of that 13 year experiment a huge black market had developed and almost as many were drinking as before.  We have the same thing going on with pot today, a massive black market with billions and billions of dollars worth of transaction every year, and huge criminal organizations getting rich. The two prohibitions are a lot more similar than different.

As for the constitutional amendment, it took that to ban alcohol because back then the feds still had some respect for states rights.  It took another amendment, the 21st Amendment, to repeal the 18th Amendment that banned alcohol. No amendment would be required to legalize marijuana as our Constitution does not ban it.

nicole1121
nicole1121 like.author.displayName 1 Like

@mrbomb13 Um...you're saying that marijuana has always been illegal in the US?

babyboo5150
babyboo5150 like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 3 Like

Why is alcohol legal when it reeks havoc on the body as well as how it can totally change a persons way of thinking? Ever go where liquor is...always a fight. There is power in numbers..andif we want change then being passive is NOT the answer. Get involved!

cannabisstrains
cannabisstrains like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

.....and prohibition is better than taxed marijuana? We're already encouraging Black Markets....

SashaDowding
SashaDowding like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 4 Like

Enough is enough! Repeal federal prohibition of the cannabis plant. Use the plant to generate much needed tax revenue. Allow the authorities to refocus their resources on serious crime. Make a name for America as the most cannabis friendly nation on the globe!

po@newrevenue.org
po@newrevenue.org like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

Taxes will not be $1.92 in tax for every $1 of product sold.  They will be less.  See http://newrevenue.org/2013/02/05/federal-marijuana-tax-bill-from-congressman-blumenauer/


george03636486
george03636486

thanks for the link

realy informetive for  anyone wanting to understand the taxing situation

po@newrevenue.org
po@newrevenue.org

@george03636486 

Thank you.  And thanks to Christopher Matthews for correcting the text -- changing "sold" to "produced."  He boosts my faith in journalism.

Pat Oglesby

MuzzyLu
MuzzyLu like.author.displayName 1 Like

Try growing your own marijuana so you know that there are no insecticides or mold on your buds, and NO TAXES! There is an ebook showing how to grow, harvest and make great little edible treats of marijuana! This book has great recipes for edible marijuana that are easy, small and cheap to make: MARIJUANA - Guide to Buying, Growing, Harvesting, and Making Medical Marijuana Oil and Delicious Candies to Treat Pain and Ailments by Mary Bendis, Second Edition. Only 2.99. Learn to make marijuana oil, delicious Cannabis Chocolates, and tasty Dragon Teeth Mints. 

tomsquawk
tomsquawk like.author.displayName 1 Like

um, isn't that what moonshiners do? wonder how you would prove a purchase or that you grew your own.

GustavoPicciuto
GustavoPicciuto like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 4 Like

I t won't. Piece of mind, at least for myself, is worth more than a 50$ per ounce tax. No responsible, working, family man is going to want to keep going to the black market to enjoy a substance less harmful than alcohol. I would pay that and more if it would mean knowing I wouldn't be harassed into buying something other than marijuana or that I wouldn't have to meet someone I don't know in a shady alley somewhere, we're grown ups with families to take care of we can't be doing all that; why can't we enjoy something that's less toxic and safer than alcohol without having to engage in criminal activity, it's not fair and it doesn't make sense. 

lilmiss2000
lilmiss2000

@TIME @timebusiness Is the pope white??

revraygreen
revraygreen like.author.displayName 1 Like

The rent-A-Christians acting as agents of Lucifer have left distribution to the black market since 1937...

Nixie
Nixie like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 3 Like

“@TIME: Will high marijuana taxes encourage black markets? http://t.co/lI9FFXFqr8" like this is worse than drug dealers?

jlittle14850
jlittle14850 like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

@TIME @timebusiness isn't it already illegally traded on the black market? Come on journalists. Do some journaling for a change

earthtocameron
earthtocameron like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

@TIME @TIMEBusiness Doesn't the government ALREADY do that? Can we try #freedom?

Hzygone
Hzygone

@TIME @timebusiness duhhhhhhhhh

Msizakirai
Msizakirai like.author.displayName 1 Like

@TIME legalize it! Bob Marley was right!

plumbum821
plumbum821 like.author.displayName 1 Like

@TIME @TIMEBusiness I don't know for sure but let's give it a shot! #legalize #cannabis

bboysolid
bboysolid

@TIME @timebusiness ofcourse

LaurenLockliear
LaurenLockliear like.author.displayName 1 Like

@TIME @TIMEBusiness will making it illegal encourage a black market? it's been illegal for decades, do you think that will change? #duh

RadianceNewYork
RadianceNewYork

@TIME @TIMEBusiness .....that's what we already have......

VicIanni10
VicIanni10

@TIME @TIMEBusiness yes, if the tax is too much. Weed is only as expensive as it is bc of illegality. Really a cheap crop..risk drives price

HurricaneMe
HurricaneMe like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

@TIME @TIMEBusiness really? dont you realize all there is right now is a black market???

JosefEugene
JosefEugene like.author.displayName 1 Like

@TIME @TIMEBusiness There will always be a black market but legality will serve convenience, which true enthusiast desire.

EuoeaoK
EuoeaoK

@TIME @TIMEBusiness Umm, yeah. Big effin duh.

jeanbrianhanle
jeanbrianhanle

@TIME @TIMEBusiness Does high tobacco taxes encourage black markets?

cmoref
cmoref

@TIME @TIMEBusiness yes? isn't there already a black market for anything and everything that is legal?

elmaxx
elmaxx

@TIME @TIMEBusiness if they are prohibitive.... i guess you have decades of proof to show for it

BardleyFarts
BardleyFarts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

@HEMPxxx @timebusiness couldnt be any worse than the black market created by prohibition! :)

forgottenlord
forgottenlord like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

Or they could place a tax on the first two stages while remove the tax from the third.

Regardless, one nice thing about legal marijuana is it will drive illicit prices down - providing a natural cap to the possible profit the black market providers can have.  This, in turn, would help prevent marijuana from being part of the fuel for extra-national drug wars.  Also, even if the illicit market is selling, it will still remove the costs associated with incarcerating people who's only crime is lighting up which is far from insignificant costs.

MacSteynberg
MacSteynberg

Taxing marijuana production will be easier said than done.  The essential problem is the ease of production.  The stuff grows wild.  You could cultivate sufficient for own use on your balcony or inside your house.  (Would be an interesting house-plant!)  How would you control or tax that?  Home brewed beer is no problem in this regard as it is quite a messy process.  I What you purchase in a shop, is better tasting and hassle free .  

billgriggs4
billgriggs4 like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 4 Like

The really good stuff takes time and skill to grow and harvest and dry and cure. In medical marijuana states with dispensaries, those places are doing gangbusters business selling expensive product to people who could grow their own without fear of arrest.  Most people don't want to mess with growing their own. They'd rather go into a shop and select from a wide variety of product. When the feds legalize and we see a real industry develop, we'll see products hit the market that can't be replicated at home and consumers' tatstes will change.

One thing I can see happening is hash taking over a big part of the market. Companies like Monsanto will develop varieties with good hemp properties that mature at the same time and can be mechanically harvested. They'll grow huge fields and seperate the resin in factories and blend with different varieties and press, and use the rest of the plant for other purposes. They'll have product with flavor and aroma profiles no one can match at home.

BobWilliamKnight
BobWilliamKnight

@billgriggs4 we dont want monsanto touching it they'll try to control it and eff with it

BobWilliamKnight
BobWilliamKnight

@billgriggs4 u r probably rite about big fields and hash  i'm saying Monsanto might try to genetically modify pot and control propriety rights. theres articles about it and G. W pharma already! i figure big tobacco co.s would be better  or neither  of these guys. don't forget about Asia and Africa  South America  i wanna see good imported like Columbian Gold

billgriggs4
billgriggs4

I know, but Monsanto touches everything.  People with this vision of legal marijuana where thousands of aging hippies are growing it all in little small plots and supplying the market are in a dream world.  It will be produced like all other crops on large corporate farms. Odds are most will be grown outdoors in huge fields, and super premium grade product will be grown in row after row of greenhouses like hothouse tomato farms.  It will all be high tech and they'll be all about maximizing yields while cutting costs and trying to figure out how to sell not just the buds and hash they produce, but stalks and other plant material growers just throw away now. We'll have big producers, like the Anheiser Busch of "buds," and smaller producers like smaller wine producers and regional breweries producing premium boutique grade product. There will be far fewer producers though, all producing on a much larger scale than most anyone growing marijuana in this country today.  "Huge grows" we read about today with hundreds or even thousands of plants will be tiny compared to the multiple acre crops of millions of plants farmers will produce in the future, there just won't be nearly as many commerical producers as there are today.

BRONCOBAMA
BRONCOBAMA like.author.displayName 1 Like

@billgriggs4 I'm already working on ideas for LARGE scale hash production , and will set up in E.WA. soon!

billgriggs4
billgriggs4

In a truly legal environment, hash just makes sense.  It's not cost effective when people have to grow on a small scale and all labor is done by hand.  That's why only poor countries with dirt cheap labor produce hash on a large commercial basis. In a legal environment though we'd likely have huge fields of commercial grade marijuana. Our producers will want to figure out ways to mechanically harvest and process the product because it will become more of a commodity with commodity pricing and there won't be so much money to pay labor.

There will also be market for hemp, so why not combine the two? Hemp fiber production isn't done so much in the Western world because of labor costs.  In Canada it's mostly all grown for seed and seed oil. I believe they use plants with big buds and more the indica look for this, but still very low THC varieties.  If marijuana is legal, why not grow a much stronger variety that produces a lot of seeds, and good resin? Seed production will reduce potency, but it could still be fairly potent, and it could also be blended with resin from trimmings from premium grade pot to boost potency a little.  That way nothing  wasted and they have a good product with a long shelf life, and most of the work can be mechanized to make it easy to process multi-acre crops.

MacSteynberg
MacSteynberg

@billgriggs4    Thanks!  That makes sense.  However, home cultivation will limit the amount of tax that could be imposed.  Personally, I favour decriminalization, particularly in South Africa where usage was confined in the distant past to hippies and other than whites.  Labourers on farms and on construction sites were seldom prosecuted for using or possession if marijuana.  As a child I would not consider smoking "dagga" as it was not the done thing until the Beatles made it acceptable. 

CliffordSchaffer
CliffordSchaffer like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 3 Like

You can make wine just by leaving the cap off of a bottle of grape juice. Likewise, it is pretty easy to produce your own tomatoes. However, nobody wants to wait several weeks or months for an uncertain result. The store has the stuff available immediately, in great variety, with reasonable prices, good quality, and no labor or wait involved.

And that is why there are hundreds of marijuana dispensaries in Los Angeles, even though all of their customers could easily grow their own.

Think about it the next time you eat a store-bought tomato, which you could have grown yourself.

billgriggs4
billgriggs4 like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

I suppose home cultivation will cut into tax revenues a little.  Most really will just buy it though or medical marijuana dispensaries would hardly being doing any business as their customers are all allowed to grow their own.  A lot of people can't seem to kill everything they grow. It takes months for pot to be ready to harvest, and there are all sorts of pests and plant diseases people have to contend with, and there's mold and fungi that can ruin a crop in the end after all that time they spent.  They have to harvest at just the right time for the right potency and cannabinoid profile, and dry it and cure it just right to make it taste good. My bet is that a lot of people will try growing pot, like a lot of people try brewing beer, but most will end up just buying it at the store.  People are lazy or busy, and most pot smokers don't smoke enough to justify the hassle of growing their own.  Some will though. At least the government will be making money rather than blowing money and organized crime groups will lose out on billions.