When developing a budget for the coming year, the previous year’s numbers loom large. Even if you challenge every assumption and explore every figure, you’re likely to come up with numbers that only slightly vary from the last year.
That’s because those numbers anchor you, unduly influencing you. Instead of being tied to history and convention, come up with another anchor, one based on a different set of facts. Define a set of non-historical criteria. Look for objective competitor data, such as headcount or other benchmarking. Then, build a model based on these criteria. Ask: if we didn’t know how we performed this year, but only relied on this objective criteria, what targets would we set? Use that model’s output to challenge the status quo.
Adapted from “Re-Anchor Your Next Budget Meeting” by Dan Lovallo and Olivier Sibony.