The November Jobs Report Disappoints Broadly

Los Angeles job fair has applicants (Lucy Nicholson/REUTERS)

The monthly report on employment, given out by the Labor Department, is the most important statistic of the month for the White House, the American household and the financial industry. The report released on Friday morning at 8:30 am didn’t disappoint–it is already a big event around the world’s markets–but it did disappoint in its content, delivering just 39,000 non-farm payroll  jobs in the past month. The private sector added only 50,000 jobs. These numbers are way below what financial market participants had expected. They were looking  for a gain of 150,000 non-farm payroll jobs and 160,000 private sector gains. Some of this shortfall is due to seasonal adjustments, but that ‘s only a partial explanation. To add agony to disappointment, the unemployment rate ticked up a bit, from 9.6% to 9.8%.

What’s going  on? The animal spirits that the Fed hoped to whip up with its $600 billion QE2 has run smack into the realities of the financial crisis and the past recession.

The Fed did succeed in whipping up bullish sentiment in the financial markets a few weeks ago, but what it couldn’t change is the sluggish nature of this economic recovery: More than 15 million Americans who want to work are unable to find jobs.

The disappointing jobs numbers are a reminder–a shocking reminder to some– that the recent recession was not typical in any respect. Unlike most recent recessions,  where the Fed raises interest rates to temper demand, this past recession was brought on by over-indebtedness on the part of individuals, financial firms and many governments. With those causes, there is no pent-up demand to unleash at the end of the recession, just skittish consumers, cautious employers and a landscape dotted with many foreclosed homes. Even a bit of good news on Black Friday can’t change that larger reality. Hence, the November jobs report.

What will come from the Friday employment report? The financial markets will readjust to a less bullish scenario–and early reports on Friday suggested that they already were, with Treasuries and gold rising in value and stocks and the dollar taking a hit. In the days ahead cyclical stocks, whether retailers or automakers, may weaken as investors trim their positions. The dollar will likely continue to weaken, though Europe’s banking crisis will probably keep the dollar’s fall modest. Of more consequence, the White House and Congress will get a kick in the pants about extending unemployment benefits (which just expired) and reaching a compromise on tax cuts. Therein lies the silver lining to this dark cloud: While nothing is guaranteed, this latest report increases the odds that Congress, duly frightened, will begin acting in a more  bipartisan fashion. That may be hard to believe in light of recent comments from the Hill, but it could happen.

Related Topics: Economy & Policy, Wall Street & Markets
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  • vbierschwale

    Why do these numbers surprise you?

    I’ve been writing for years that they are going to continue to get worse and the reason why is because we don’t track the numbers.

    In order to get to any point, you need a road map.
    Our map to understand the employment numbers comes from requiring publicly traded companies to specify on their quarterly and annual financial reports exactly how many temp and permanent employees that they have in each country along with a sum of all salaries for each country.

    Only then will we be able to get a handle on what really is happening here.

    Folks, we need to wake up and realize that the things that worked in the past do not work now because we do one significant thing different now which is send our jobs offshore and put our people out of work.

    Global Trade is great as long as three rules are adhered too.

    Otherwise the economies of each of our countries will be destroyed simply because we did not bother to track the quantity of jobs that our employers have.

    If you want to know what those three rules are, you can find them here

    http://keepamericaatwork.com/?p=11539

    Virgil
    http://www.KeepAmericaAtWork.com

  • http://rodgermmitchell.wordpress.com Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

    So, clearly what we need is to raise taxes, cut federal spending, freeze federal pay scales, end unemployment compensation, cut Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid benefits, demand that TARP recipients pay the money back, slash defense spending, reduce the hours of postal workers and fire lots of federal employees.
    .
    NOT!
    .
    But this is what our government wants to do, all in the name of “fiscal prudence.” And that is the leadership that has given us on average, one recession every five years.
    .
    Once again, we a led to fiscal suicide by those who do not understand Monetary Sovereignty.

    Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

  • http://stephenpoo.wordpress.com stephenpoo

    I have been very pessimistic about the economy, but lately I thought maybe I was wrong, there were reports of things getting better and store sales up. I thought maybe we were climbing out, then this report.
    I think I’ll crawl back in my shell.

  • dochosvet

    Who were these lucky souls the 600 billion bailed out in the QE2 thing. If it doesn’t make any sense it probably doesn’t make any cents for our country unless you are the ones who had their bonds bought. I bet they were all power people who made another tidy sum off the small people by the government buying some rich schmucks bonds. It sounds on the same level as bailing out the investment houses so they can claim big bonus’s. I bet in January we hear of big bond bonus’s.
    They wont buy tv’s, car’s or what ever it takes to stimulate the economy. They are not me who is just barely squeaking by.
    Did Obama freeze congress and their employee wages too? Or is that to much to hope for.
    And don’t cut SS or Medicare. That stuff is not some sort of unearned benefit. I have paid into it for 50 plus years and Medicare since 1968 or so. Plus I still pay over $3500 a year for medical insurance now. It is not some sort of gift from the government or the younger generation.
    As you can tell the whole financial subject is just plain irritating!

  • http://rbmatudan.wordpress.com rbmatudan

    Let’s face it, people are already tired of hoping for the better. The American government does not have the political will to be honest with the American people about our financial condition. The politicians will most likely take the easy way out by printing us into hyper-inflation rather than admit their folly. They spend our hard-earned money. The rich will be richer and the poor will be poorer.
    http://www.pathtoasia.com/jobs

  • http://rodgermmitchell.wordpress.com Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

    Our “financial condition” is that the economy is starved for money, a situation easily corrected by federal deficit spending. As for hyperinflation, well America did have one back in 1776, the birth of our nation —
    .
    Hyperinflations generally begin not with money printing, but with a calamitous economic situation that caused regular inflation. Pre-war Germany’s inflation began with the onerous terms the Allies enforced. Zimbabwe’s inflation began with Robert Mugabe’s “land reform” (i.e., taking all the land owned by whites and distributing it to ill-equipped blacks).
    .
    In both cases, the government responded to the inflation by printing money, rather than by raising interest rates. This caused hyper-inflation. In short, the inflation caused the money printing and not the other way around.
    .
    The misguided fear of inflation has prevented the government from taking the necessary steps to cure the recessions. It’s as though they don’t want to feed a starving child, for fear food will make the child obese.
    .
    I say, first feed the starving child. Deal with obesity only if it happens.
    .
    Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

  • bobleeswagger308

    Going to be partisan here, so if you don’t like it, too bad. For the past 22-months, twice a week and along with millions of others I have called my Democratic Representative, the White House, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid demanding, pleading, and begging that they do something besides pay off Obama supporters. Drop Cap n Trade, Healthcare, and other economy killers we said and really work on putting America back to work. We wrote letters and sent email, but they ignored our demands, pleas, and begging and blew about 3-trillion Yankee dollars on brain farts, and useless should’ve, would’ve, could’ve pie in the sky baloney. Now, after the slaughter of November 2 they say they are all for jobs, but they really want to let the taxes go back to old levels so they have more to spend. Anyone who suggested, supported, voted for this waste of resource and put the country in danger, should be decorating trees and I mean really decorating them. And for those of you who mindlessly chant bring jobs back, get a thought will ya? What can we make in this country, that we can export, and others can afford? Jobs went off shore SO WE COULD AFFORD WHAT USED TO BE MANUFACTURED IN THE USA. Companies are not in business to lose money by selling you something less than it takes to make. You want villains; look at labor unions and week management that gave in to unreasonable demands–gee, sort of like GM. And we bring to these shores tens of thousands of Indians, Pakis, and others to do high paying work because Americans are either too stupid or too lazy to do them.

  • bobleeswagger308

    BTW, when has the job info not been disappointing in the last 22-months? Even when the administration lied about jobs and the economy, it was still bad and then when they reported more truth than lies it only emphasized how bad it was. Obama and every one of his cabinet officers are born liars, and as fence posts.

  • bobleeswagger308

    I hate to see the rich get knocked for being rich. It’s not like I appreciate deadbeats like Ted Kennedy, John Kerry, or any super rich puke who inherited it, but did nothing to enhance it, or put it too good use: How many jobs could have the, in my opinion, useless Ted the Swimmer employed if he would have went to work? Anyway, the rich can continue to get richer and you can become rich, because riches are not limited by race, by class, by education, by field, by anything except desire and hard work. I would like to leave my kids a stash to help them become richer in their lifetimes, so they can pass it on, but all this class hating, rich hating has to stop or none of us will have anything and that is exactly the way the so-called progressives want it. Us in our quilted grey coats and the leaders calling the shots from their privileged high places. Wake up while there is time: If you think the Dims are the friend of the little guy you need to reconsider.

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