The G-20: This Time, It’s Different

Last week’s G-20 economic summit in South Korea was widely depicted as a failure for the Obama administration and a rebuff for the United States. In many respects, it was. Obama remarked that if the U.S. hadn’t tried to set the agenda, it would have had an easier time. “Part of the reason that sometimes it seems that the United States is attracting some dissent is because we’re initiating ideas,” he said. “We’re putting them forward. The easiest thing for us to do would be to take a passive role and let things just drift which wouldn’t cause any conflict.”

It’s a fair comment but also an exercise in gilding the proverbial lily. The fact remains that the United States entered the summit hoping for joint agreement on addressing global surpluses and deficits and on currency valuations. The key players here, of course, are China and America, but China was not alone in rejecting American formulas for global economic stability. Germany and Great Britain were equally dismissive of American financial policy, and especially excoriating of the Federal Reserve and Ben Bernanke for recent measures to inject $600 billion of liquidity to spark what has so far been an anemic recovery in the United States.

As a result of the Fed’s moves, the Chinese were able to turn the charge of “currency manipulation” right back at America, and all but accused the U.S. of blatant hypocrisy. The British prime minister, meanwhile, scoffed at the inability of Americans to bring spending under control.

All of that was text, but the subtext was more telling. Essentially, the other economic powers of the new world were informing the old economic power that they were done with lectures and dictates. They were done with America showing up and pronouncing how other societies ought to order their economic affairs. Take care of your own house first, they lectured right back, and come back to the table when you’ve learned some humility.

The irony, of course, is that Obama is the first president in memory who actually does combine strength and humility, but at this summit, it didn’t matter who he was. It mattered what he represents: an American legacy of power and control and an American reality of a changed global position where it remains astonishingly powerful but simultaneously challenged by a host of new competitors who are flexing their own muscle and refuse to be intimidated. The summit was therefore the most dramatic sign to date that the world after the financial crisis will not be the world before. Economists and historians may hate the phrase “this time it’s different,” but this time, it is.

Related Topics: G-20, G20 summit, Obama, Obama Administration, Economy & Policy, Wall Street & Markets
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  • tanboontee

    Since when had the US become so humble as to only initiate ideas in international conferences and world summits?
    What Washington still wants is to subdue other participating nations to be coerced to follow its demands. But not this time in G20, unfortunately.

  • http://rodgermmitchell.wordpress.com Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

    “Germany and Great Britain were equally dismissive of American financial policy, and especially excoriating of the Federal Reserve and Ben Bernanke for recent measures to inject $600 billion of liquidity to spark what has so far been an anemic recovery in the United States”
    .
    The U.S. is monetarily sovereign, meaning it has the unlimited power to create its money. The U.K. also is monetarily sovereign, also with the unlimited power to create its money, but being part of the EU, it is subject to certain “moral” constraints. Germany is not monetarily sovereign, and so does not have the unlimited power to create its money.
    .
    Three different nations, with three different monetary situations, yet they talk as though they all had the same problems with the same solutions. The failure to understand the difference between monetary sovereignty and monetary non-sovereignty is the basis for misunderstanding, misdirection and missteps here and all over the world.
    .
    Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

  • danallen2

    The US spends 30% of GDP on Government. The Europeans criticizing the US spend 50%.

    The USA should certainly adjust.

    if they don’t like it, they can get rid of their social systems first, which have always been riding on the backs of America’s military expenditure. Maybe the real adjustment is that the USA dials the military down, and then see what happens if Europe gets itself into a jam somewhere.

  • danallen2

    One more thing: why in the world did US taxpayer dollars get funneled through AIG to bail out German banks and German taxpayers? This is the thanks we get?

  • http://rodgermmitchell.wordpress.com Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

    danallen2

    No need to fret. In a monetarily sovereign nation like ours, taxpayers do not pay for federal spending. The federal government relies neither on taxes nor borrowing. If both taxes and borrowing were eliminated, this would have zero affect on the federal government’s ability to spend.

    The payments to AIG didn’t cost you a cent.

    Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

  • wmhumphrey

    “No need to fret. In a monetarily sovereign nation like ours, taxpayers do not pay for federal spending.”

    Really? Maybe you should tell that to Uncle Sam, because that’s not what I see on my W-2!

  • http://erieangel.wordpress.com erieangel

    America certainly isn’t what it once was. In the not-to-distant past, America was the beacon of the world. Other nations looked to us with respect and with some with fear. We policed the world, in part because the world needed to be policed and in part because the USA thought it our duty to do so.
    .
    Today, however, that has changed. Decades of foreign policy blunders to the Fed’s manipulation of the dollar even while we criticize other countries for doing the same and still not forstalling recessions about every 5 years, has destroyed how other nations view us. We have become a nation of bullies, both militarily and economically.

  • quantumplanner

    It would be helpful for Rodger to explain or leave a reference which validates his view of federal spending. If some counter-intuitive fact exist, please say provide some details for us to seriously debate this point.

  • 94134gamesmith

    The failure to understand the difference between monetary sovereignty and monetary non-sovereignty is the basis for misunderstanding, misdirection and missteps here and all over the world.
    Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
    I think you may miss the point for why the G-20 discredit to Mr. Obama; it was not the monetary sovereignty but side effect of it. Do you give your children credit card after they outspent the limit? Or it was just another credit card you only pay 1% of the purchase?
    G-20 would not care if you raise 600 billion dollars to reinforce the banking or Freddi Mae or Mac; it was the reborn of Michael Milken and hedge fund manager who purchase anything in sight with no money down at any cost and everyone else pay your bill? After Inflation price will beat the cost?
    Why are there fewer entrepreneurs available now in American? Most mom and pop store fell under the sovereignty of franchise? What went wrong with reviving American?
    If you, Rodger Malcolm Mitchell, can handle the 1.45 trillion dollars easily, for sake of consumerism, why not adopt me, Dad?

  • http://manoelmiguel.wordpress.com manoelmiguel

    This time is really different. Not because it is president Obama or the democrats. It’s because America is divided into two blocks: the one who want to do something to solve internal crisis (Democrats) and the one who says NO (the GOP) to whatever the first one intends to do. To get things even worse, in the middle elections Americans chose the block of NO as majority in the House to block with power of veto whatever Democrats and president Obama want to do. So, Obama represented at the G-20 the block of want-to-do-something but has no power. President Obama is seen by the world as the lame duck that will wait two years for his term to pass and the GOP regain power. It is incredible how Americans cannot see that the worst of the worst in their economy started and culminated under former president Bush’s rod! This guy destroyed Amercian economy and destabilized world’s economy as a whole. Then we say of the currency in China but, had not former president Bush done so evil to his country and to its economy, China would mean less to its weaknesses. The fact is that a president mus have a focus. Former president Bush had no focus. His focus was going after terrorism and declared his war on terror. But terror is a big shark impossible to be distroyed. All of us know quite well that good and evil are nothing but part of the universe equilibrium. It is impossible to extinguish one or another. It is just like to shoot around with no focus. Doing that, the former president blew money out in the air, provoqued two impossible to conclude wars, paid too much attention to the outside and forgot his own country and his own problems. By doing that he ruinned America and the world. I think that president Obama wants to fix this but the problem is so vast that he cannot do it now. Especially because he doesn’t have approuval from Senators and Deputies and also because he would need many years of suffering and pan, which Americans are not so used to.
    If I were president Obama I would stop determining what to do and start asking the GOP for their good ideas.

  • http://rodgermmitchell.wordpress.com Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

    wmhumphrey,

    What you see on your W2 are taxes, which are not related in any way to federal spending. The government could double or triple it’s spending, and this would not require even one dollar’s worth of taxes. The federal government, being monetarily sovereign, can “print” all the money it needs.

    The sole constraint on federal spending is inflation, not taxes or borrowing.

    Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

  • http://rodgermmitchell.wordpress.com Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

    What aspect would you like me to validate? Do you disagree that the federal government has the unlimited ability to “print” money?

    And if you agree the federal government does have the unlimited ability to “print” money, then you also must agree that taxes do not pay for federal spending.

    And you also must agree that borrowing does not pay for federal spending.

    In fact, if both taxes and borrowing were $0, this would not impact the government’s ability to print money.

    The only constraint on money printing is inflation, and we are a long way from that.

    Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

  • http://rodgermmitchell.wordpress.com Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

    94134gamesmith,
    .
    Neither my children nor I are monetarily sovereign, so we can’t spend unlimited money. We require income in order to spend. Otherwise, we could go bankrupt.
    .
    The same can be said of Illinois, California, Cook County, Chicago, Greece and Spain. They too are not monetarily sovereign.
    .
    However, if like the U.S. federal government, I were monetarily sovereign and had a money-printing press in my basement, I would not need income and I would not need to borrow and I could not go bankrupt.
    .
    Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

  • economicsfordemocrats

    The currency debate hides the more important facts of high tariffs and administrative import burdens by China. Plus paying an average manufacturing wage of $191 per month that does not create a quality customer/client/consumer. You might have noticed no discussions of these facts which are key to creating a guality global economy!!

    Mark S. Pash CFP
    Center for Progressive Economics

  • fumbles1

    I’m too trying to wrap my head around this monetary sovereignty thing. Can someone explain it to me like i’m a 6 year old (or an idiot, which ever you prefer).

    My current understanding (and i know this is over simplified) is that a monetary sovereign nation can print how ever much money as it wants, but that doesn’t increase it’s wealth. It’s analogous to a corporation’s ability to issue as much stock as it wants, but since that doesn’t increase the value of the corporation itself, it just has the effect of devaluing the existing stock.

    So if there was a super expensive magical widget that costs more than all of the dollars in existence, then the government would never be able to afford it regardless of how much money they print. It would still cost more than all the dollars in existence.

  • http://rodgermmitchell.wordpress.com Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

    fumbles1
    .
    You are confusing two separate questions:
    .
    Question 1. Can the U.S. government “print” unlimited quantities of money? Answer: Yes.
    .
    Question 2. Will money printing cause inflation. Answer: Yes and no. Increasing the supply of money can reduce the value of money, unless the demand also is increased. The demand for money is increased by increasing the reward for owning money, i.e. interest. So to prevent inflation, increase interest rates.
    .
    There is some point at which money “printing” could cause inflation, but we are nowhere near that point, and interest rates have plenty of room to be raised. Meanwhile, as you worry about a possible inflation, sometime in the future, why not worry about some real problems that are happening right now:

    Reduced Social Security benefits
    Reduced Medicare benefits
    The lack of universal health care insurance,
    Reduced Medicaid benefits
    Crumbling infrastructure
    Poor educational system
    Need for R&D in many areas
    Poverty
    Homelessness
    .
    While you wonder whether sometime in the unknown future, we might have inflation we can’t easily control, all of today’s problems are happening, and debt hysteria prevents them from being cured.
    .
    Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

  • fumbles1

    My question is a bit more fundamental than that. Let me try and ask it a different way.

    The us GDP is about $14 trillion. If the US government printed an extra $14 trillion every year, then the yearly inflation rate would be 100% (everything would cost twice as much as the year before), if all other things remained equal (there was no increase in the demand for the dollar) correct?

  • 94134gamesmith

    Reducing social benefit by printing money sounds good as my equity increases till I did not make over $58,000 to cover my $500,000 house and $200,000 loan on the line of credit. It was a good deal as long as you do not have to pay.
    It plays like a dream that your house went up 15% annually. It works if yoour house is paid for and you do not request a line of credit on your house. Each year you pay more tax on you house; and it is called voodoo economics and the solution increase revenues without additional tax law after California’s Prop. 13. that owner paid only what value of the house he purchased
    Consequently, foreclosure is inevitable. Why 100%? it was just a 15% acceleration rate; and salary did not make its 15% raise. And, it was the supply side economics and we suffered the economic downfall to our housing and Freddie Mae and Max that we are short on trillion dollars now. Our national debt can be paid off if every citizen earns enough like millions. Our Monetary sovereignty allows; and Why not? If reduction on social payment works by printing more money; How much do we need to print to get free medical insurance?
    It is feasible if only we do not import or export; any transaction with any kind of payment or exchange is relatively affected in change of its values. Double the amount in printing money do not make you double in value; but it does affect the way you make a transaction or exchange. Does a American earn $27000 annually equal eight make only$3500 annually in China? Is it Measurable by productivity or its count?
    So, money plays a important moment of time and transition of value at the same or comparable environment; and the balance of price and value result varies at each transaction or exchange by the debtor and creditor.

  • headybrew

    Rodger, Do you have links available for data supporting your analysis other than from your own blog? I’m not suggesting that the data your provide there is incorrect or false by any means but I think you’d have an easier time persuading folks if you provided sources/analysis for which you were not the author. Likely it would help to boost your credibility among the skeptics. In the last post you mention getting data for one of your graphs from one of the Fed banks (St. Louis was it?). Do they have that data you used readily available on the web that you can link to?

  • http://rodgermmitchell.wordpress.com Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

    fumbles1

    If the U.S. printed an extra $14 trillion next year, we surely would have inflation. However, it is impossible to know what the inflation rate would be, as it does not translate according to your suggested formula: Inflation rate = Deficit/GDP.
    .
    The current deficit is about $1.4 trillion, which according to your formula means inflation should be 10%. At last measure, CPI was about 1%.

    Money supply is not the sole cause of inflation.

    Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

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  • yourguidetochina

    Unfortunately, I think the charge that the US is also manipulating their currency is maybe a valid charge.

    Steve
    http://www.YourGuideToChina.com

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