Economists tell us that the Great Recession ended last summer. One complication: Many people—President Obama included—are acting like we’re still in the midst of a recession. One more complication: A committee of economists now says that the recession that ended last summer may not have ended after all.
Makes perfect sense, right? I guess that’s the kind of clarity you can expect to come out of any “committee of economists.” (Just writing that phrase sends shivers of frustration and fear down my spine.)
From the NY Times:
The committee plans to announce on Monday that it cannot yet declare an end to the recession that began in December 2007, several members indicated on Sunday. Such an acknowledgment is rare in the history of setting dates to business cycles and could affect the behavior of investors and consumers.
Despite a recent uptick in employment and income, the decision of the committee at a meeting on Friday reflects a lingering worry that the economy could turn downward again in a so-called double-dip recession.
Several economists on the committee, which has seven active members, said they considered such a turn to be unlikely. But, they said, the duration and severity of the contraction have made it hard to determine with authority that a recovery has begun.
So, for the record, we’ll need to wait a while longer to officially determine what happened last summer.