Will Short Sales Help the Housing Market

I was taken aback this morning when  I read in the New York Times that there is a new federal program that will look to put many thousands of mortgages-gone-bad back to the banks through a short-sale process. It’s not actually new, the Treasury assures me, but rather was put forward as part of the [...]

New Jobs Number: A “Single Dip” Recession?

For a while now, chatter has been growing that the economy is headed for a double-dip recession. That’s the type where you think you have recovered, but in fact you are only on the first bump of the roller coaster. But this morning’s jobs numbers seem to suggest the possibility of a double dip is [...]

Is Mortgage Refinancing a Loser’s Game?

The Wall Street Journal ran a big story on Wednesday about how homeowners are missing out on big savings because people can’t qualify for mortgage refinancings.  This sounds like a tragic twist in what has been a humdinger of a bear housing market. But the more you understand mortgages, the more this bad news looks [...]

Price tags for health care: how we can make it happen

Two days ago I wrote a post about why I think price tags could save American health care. One of the great forces of the U.S. economy is the price-conscious consumer. Collectively we manage to drive down the cost of everything from bar soap to tax preparation. Such is the nature of a competitive marketplace [...]

Will China’s Economy Collapse?

Investors have recently focused on some of the problems potentially facing the Chinese economy, and they’re getting worried. The concerns are that China might be facing a destabilizing property price bubble and rising bad loans at its banks due to last year’s recession-busting credit boom. I’ve offered a word of caution myself. The message from [...]

Is China the new IMF?

The International Monetary Fund has never been all that popular with developing nations. Sure, the IMF loans countries money when they most need it, but it comes with nasty strings attached. In return for cash, the IMF demands reforms – market liberalization, financial restructuring, budget cuts — many of which are politically unpalatable. But in [...]

Should BRICs Become BRIICs?

Over in Europe, the PIGS have expanded into the PIIGS, but not for the best of reasons. Perhaps we should add an “I” to the BRICs, for reasons much more positive for the global economy. The extra “I” would stand for Indonesia, a country that often gets forgotten amid all of the attention lavished on [...]

Could price tags save American health care?

A big part of the reason consumer goods are so cheap in the U.S. is because people always know what they’re paying. As a consequence, consumers can push prices lower by voting with their feet. If CVS tries to sell me a toothbrush for $4 when the one at Rite Aid goes for $3, I [...]

I’m One of Goldman Sachs’ Biggest Threats

Goldman Sachs’ annual report is out today. Haven’t got a chance to read the whole thing yet. A reporter from one of my former employers digs through Goldman’s trading record. But here’s what caught my eye: I am now one of the biggest risks to the profits of Goldman Sachs–big enough to deserve mentioning for [...]

The Consumer is Back; Should we be Worried

The US Department of Commerce is out today with monthly numbers on personal earnings, spending and saving. The good news is that spending, up 5%, rose much faster than income, up 1%. The bad news is the same: Spending grew much faster than income. Increases in spending, especially when they are rising much faster than [...]