I know we know that weekly unemployment claims bounce around a lot and that we shouldn’t freak out too much that they have, again, climbed higher. The Department of Labor does a good job of underscoring that by always highlighting the figure’s four-week moving average—which for the week ending April 18 fell by 4,250, to 646,750.
This point really gets driven home if you read through the qualitative information states provide along with their numbers. I happened to do that this morning. For the week ending April 4, Michigan saw an increase of 5,408 initial claims partly because of layoffs in the automobile industry. For the week ending April 11, Michigan saw a decrease of 12,566 claims partly because of fewer layoffs in the automobile industry. Florida experienced the flipside. The state went from a decrease in claims because of fewer layoffs in construction, trade, service and manufacturing, to a 9,303-person uptick because of layoffs in those exact same sectors.
California is a particularly interesting example. For the weekend ending April 4, claims dropped by 4,708. Part of the reason: March 31 is a state holiday and the unemployment office was closed. The next week claims climbed by 6,404.
How do we look through the noise to see where things are headed? How do we tell if we’re at a turning point? Well, despite the week’s increase in first-time claims, we’re still below the March 28 peak of 674,000. That’s a good sign. But that four-week average is still in 1982 territory. And continuing claims are at a high point. Where we are overall is still largely wait-and-see.
Barbara!