How Booz-Allen predicted the newspaper bust

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A very interesting tale from the blog of Tim McGuire, the former editor of the Minneapolis Star Tribune who now teaches at Arizona State:

Most people believe this is an industry implosion none of us could have ever imagined. Well that’s not really true.

The Cowles family imagined it and after years of strong stewardship decided in 1997 the old saw about discretion and valor made a lot of sense to the family.  Early in 1997 David Cox, then Cowles CEO, commissioned the major consulting firm Booz-Allen to analyze the future of classifieds. I would dearly love to have that report in front of me now, but I vividly remember sitting through the excruciating pounding my beloved business got that day.  While I only remember the broad outlines of the report I remember enough to know that as seers the Booz-Allen people were almost mystical. They predicted the classified demise with a precision that today strikes me as awesome.  At the time I thought they were a bunch of negative doomsayers. Unfortunately, they nailed it.

There were two available reactions. Mine, which was “nothing could be this bleepin’ bad!” In my defense, people like McClatchy’s Gary Pruitt and other newspaper buyers saw it my way. The other possible reaction was, “our entire net worth is tied up in this company and the risk is simply too great.” That was the Cowles family reaction and within months they announced they were going to research “strategic alternatives” The preferred ’strategic alternative’ was the sale to McClatchy.

So many critics focus on the McClatchy purchase, but  the focus really ought to be on the wisdom of that sale. I have seen very few folks acknowledge that the Cowles family was smart enough to seek advice, wise enough to heed that advice and then courageous enough to take decisive action.

Hmmm, guess those highly-paid consultants can be worth the big bucks. Sometimes.