Dan Kadlec has had a piece up on TIME.com for a few days that reviews How to Know When the Economy is Turning Up. My favorite among the leading indicators he cites is The Pasta Indicator:
Pasta is a cheap meal, and sales are shooting through the roof — rising 22% in 2008 after years of tepid growth, according to Nielsen Co. Much of the increase is due to commodities related price hikes. But the trend still means that pasta is claiming a larger portion of the average grocery basket. When pasta sales begin to slow you’ll know times are getting better. One way to track the trend is by watching financial results at American Italian Pasta Co. (ticker: AIPC), which is North America’s largest pasta producer. The stock has soared from $5 to $26 in the past 12 months while just about everything else got hammered. Revenue surged 43% to $569 million in 2008 — after declining or growing only modestly the previous three years. When this counter cyclical pasta packer hits a rough patch it could signal better times for the rest of us.
Well, American Italian Pasta reported earnings after the market close today. The news is discouraging for everyone but American Italian Pasta shareholders:
Feb 11 (Reuters) – American Italian Pasta Co (AIPC.O) posted a nineteen-fold rise in first-quarter profit that handily beat analyst estimates, helped by higher selling prices and overall volumes, sending its shares up as much as 21 percent.
The company earned $26 million, or $1.23 a share, compared with $1.4 million, or 7 cents a share, a year earlier.
Analysts were looking for a profit of 43 cents a share, excluding items, on revenue of $146.2 million, according to Reuters Estimates.