So maybe the Great Decoupling thesis wasn’t nonsense. Reports Time’s Michael Schuman from Hong Kong:
Finding an empty table at a Starbucks in Hong Kong on a Sunday afternoon these days feels like winning the lottery. So does getting a reservation at a good dim sum restaurant or renting an affordable apartment. While the U.S. suffers the convulsions of an impending recession and massive wealth destruction, here the malls are stuffed full and the streets bumper-to-bumper with BMWs. The good times keep rolling, and not just in Hong Kong, but across much of emerging Asia, from Shanghai to Mumbai. Sure, the U.S. turmoil has had some impact — jittery investors have knocked back stock markets from last year’s lofty heights — but in general, the story of America’s economic woes has been confined to the morning newspapers. ….
It’s not that the U.S. and Asia are somehow more loosely linked. With increasingly interconnected global manufacturing and financial systems, the influence of the U.S. isn’t going to just vanish. However, Asia’s developing economies are becoming so advanced that they can generate their own growth. It is domestic demand and investment that are protecting Asia’s economies from the U.S. recession. Asians simply have more money to buy the TVs, cars and houses to keep their own economies roaring on. Wages in China’s urban areas, for example, jumped nearly 19% in 2007. “It is the internal dynamics that are giving Asia its dynamism,” says Ifzal Ali, chief economist at the ADB [Asian Development Bank] in Manila.
This is a good thing. Eventually, consumers in China and India will begin to compete with those in America for the title of engine of world growth. This might mean that the U.S. economy doesn’t play the dominant role it has in the world over the past six decades, but it does mean a healthier global economy. With more sources of growth, a sick America can no longer send the rest of the world into the hospital ward.
I hope that’s right. But I also wonder if it’s just that Asia only beginning to feel the impact of the U.S. slowdown.