The consumer recession began in November December

Here’s something I sure didn’t know, from Business Week’s Michael Mandel:

What the government calls “personal consumption” is actually a grab bag of items, some of which don’t really fit the usual notion of consumer spending. For example, the nation’s current annual personal consumption of $10 trillion includes about $1.8 trillion in outlays by Medicare, Medicaid, and private health insurance providers. This is real money, but consumers don’t control or even see most of it, since it usually goes right to the health-care provider.

The government’s count of personal consumption also includes “imputed” categories, that is, entries that don’t involve any money changing hands. Two of the biggest examples: $1.1 trillion for “rent” that homeowners theoretically pay to themselves to live in their own homes, and $240 billion for “services furnished without payment by financial intermediaries”—in other words, the value of services like no-fee checking accounts.

In fact, once medical outlays and those two imputed categories are set aside, it turns out that the rest of personal spending has actually fallen since November, adjusted for inflation. The decline is pretty much across the board: inflation-adjusted purchases of food, clothing, furniture, and motor vehicles are all down. The part of health-care spending that individuals control most directly—prescription drugs—is down as well.

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  • Felix Salmon

    I don’t get it. Is he saying that imputed rent and the value of free checking accounts have gone up this year?

  • Ffred

    Perhaps artificially inflating the consumption rate improves revenue forecasts. Or perhaps it’s intended to make the trade deficit look smaller than it really is. Scary stuff.

  • Justin Fox

    I think he’s simply saying that things like imputed rent and the value of free checking accounts are estimates that are never going to be able to reflect changes in actual consumer behavior in a timely way. It’s not a scam, it’s just a way of making everything in the National Income and Product Accounts add up. But it means the total monthly consumption numbers don’t give the greatest picture of the economy’s ups and downs. If you just look at goods, and ignore services (where most of these estimates show up), it looks like real consumption is down every month since November.

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