I have a column in the magazine with “The Science of Romance” on the cover (in the U.S., overseas it’s Ny lon kong–which, somewhat disappointedly, is not the amazing tale of a giant pantyhosed gorilla) and online here. The column begins:
Every day it’s looking more like a recession in the U.S. The December economic numbers (released in January) have been mostly bad: unemployment up, to 5%; retail sales down 0.4%; industrial production flat. The housing market, where all the trouble started, is still in the tank. Banks are reporting big new losses and layoffs. Stock prices are plummeting. Presidential contenders are starting to focus on the economy on the campaign trail. It’s ugly out there.
So let’s just say it is in fact recession time for the world’s biggest economy. What does that mean, exactly?
To be pedantic about it, that means a “significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months.” That’s the semiofficial definition of a recession, courtesy of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private think tank that since 1929 has determined the start and end dates of U.S. downturns. A clearer but clunkier standard is two straight quarters of declining gross domestic product. Or there’s Harry Truman’s classic definition: “It’s a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it’s a depression when you lose yours.”
What we’re talking about is an economy-wide mood swing. Businesses in lots of industries shed jobs. Consumers tighten their belts. Banks curtail lending. And then, usually within 12 months, things bottom out and start heading upward again. It’s a temporary, cyclical phenomenon–not to be confused with long-term trends like the rise of China and India, the growth in income inequality and the decline of the TV sitcom. Read more.
So much has happened in the two days since I finished writing the column that it seems a little strange to look back at it now. Actually, scratch that. Nothing significant has happened in the past two days; it’s just that a lot has been said about stimulating the poor old ailing economy.