The incredible shrinking federal deficit stops shrinking

I wrote a column earlier this year about the incredible shrinking federal deficit. So it seems like I ought to mention that there are some early signs that it’s about to start growing again. From Bloomberg (via Econbrowser):

Government auctions of bills, notes and bonds in the fiscal year that started this month may rise more than 50 percent to $220 billion, according to UBS Securities LLC, one of the 21 primary dealers that underwrite Treasury auctions. The first decline in corporate tax revenue since 2003 increased the shortfall by 12 percent to $162.8 billion for the year ended in September, from $144.8 billion in the 12 months through April.

With the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates to keep the economy from falling into recession and inflation slowing, an increase in net sales would mar an otherwise bullish outlook for U.S. government debt, which has returned 4.3 percent this year, Merrill Lynch & Co. index data show. Less than six months ago, Treasury officials credited a shrinking deficit for allowing them to eliminate sales of three-year notes.

“Unless the economy turns on a dime and starts to show strength again, we’re going to be looking at increased Treasury issuance beginning with bills later this year and spreading out across all Treasuries beginning in the first quarter,” said William O’Donnell, head of U.S. government bond strategy at Zurich-based UBS AG’s securities unit in Stamford, Connecticut.

It’s not just UBS that thinks this:

The average estimate of UBS, Barclays Capital Inc., Banc of America Securities LLC, RBS Greenwich Capital Markets Inc. and Wrightson ICAP is for the shortfall to widen to $196 billion this fiscal year. All are primary dealers, except Wrightson, a Jersey City, New Jersey-based research firm specializing in Treasury finance.

In my column back in March, I wrote that the much-bigger-than-expected increase in tax receipts between 2004 and 2006 was attributable mostly to the fact that almost all income gains were going to people in the highest tax brackets. So if revenues are starting to disappoint, does that mean income inequality is decreasing?

Apple CEO Cook Gives Up $75M in Stock Dividends

NEW YORK — Apple CEO Tim Cook is giving up $75 million in dividends on restricted stock that the company is awarding to all of its employees.

In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday, Apple Inc. said that Cook requested that his restricted stock units not receive dividends. The dividends that Apple workers are getting amount to $2.65 per quarter for each restricted stock unit held. The shares are not normally eligible to receive dividends, so Apple’s decision is a perk for its employees.

p_lukasiak

“So if revenues are starting to disappoint, does that mean income inequality is decreasing?”

probably not, since corporate America will lay off workers (or minimize the workers compensation) in order to maintain profit margins.
Justin Fox

Actually, income inequality did go down during the last recession, presumably because executive bonuses, stock option gains, etc. are more sensitive to changes in the economy/market than wage income. But obviously it’s not really good news to see inequality go down that way, and it seems to just pop right back up again when the economy recovers.
http://www.fundmasteryblog.com Kurt Brouwer

Actually, Justin is correct. During the last recession, incomes in the top brackets fell sharply, while income in the lowest brackets actually rose a bit.

I would beg to differ a bit that the deficit will almost certainly stop shrinking. Certainly, Federal tax revenue growth has slowed considerably, but Federal spending is also slowing a lot.

And, I think the economy is in the process of picking up despite the housing problems, so tax revenue growth should be OK. Therefore, the big issue is whether or not Congress can keep spending increases at about the level of inflation. If they can, the budget deficit will shrink even further from its current level of 1.2% of GDP.

http://www.fundmasteryblog.com
http://www.facingup.org William Hallowell

This is the exact issue we’re currently working on at Public Agenda. You should definitely check out Facing Up to the Nation’s Finances, a nonpartisan project that addresses the long-term challenges of the federal budget. Read our blog (http://facingup.org/blog), check out valuable resources and information and contribute. Great post! Feel free to contact me for more info.