Falling markets, risk, and dubious explanations

My latest column is up online (it’s in the paper magazine that comes out tomorrow). Here’s how it begins: A share of stock-or a bond, a house, a stand of timber or any other asset-is worth the following: the future income one hopes to receive from it minus a haircut for the risk that things [...]

A deficit prediction that didn’t pan out

While working on my previous post about taxes, I came across an article I wrote just after the 2004 election about President Bush and fiscal policy. On the whole it stands up reasonably well, hinting as it does that the chances of Bush really doing something in his second term about the country’s long-run budget [...]

Responding rationally to inevitable future tax hikes

In his Generation Risk blog over at CNNMoney.com, Money magazine’s Pat Regnier (a former Time writer, by the way) warns of the “Great Tax Hike” to come: Besides the current budget deficit, future lawmakers are going have to wrestle with the mounting costs of Social Security and Medicare. And whatever “peace dividend” we may have [...]